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Summarizing DNA Evidence When Relatives are Possible SuspectsThomas R. Belin, David W. Gjertson and Ming-yi Hu Summaries of DNA evidence in criminal proceedings have been controversial in part because the calculation of a probability of chance agreement between crime and suspect samples typically has depended on independence or conditional independence assumptions that are subject to dispute. This talk will describe a new methodology that summarizes DNA evidence by addressing the possibility that a relative of the accused individual is the source of a crime sample, which can be viewed as complementary to assessing the probability of chance agreement in the broader population. The new technique uses a statistical criterion based on distances between bands from autoradiograph images to distinguish individuals without relying on any conditional independence assumptions. We apply the method to data from a paternity testing laboratory to illustrate its ability to distinguish between the DNA profiles of related individuals. In addition, a simulation study suggests that in order to distinguish reliably between family members, more genetic loci should be probed than the three to five loci that are typically investigated in current practice. Go to proceedings home page
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